Indiana Preview: Is Franklin holding back? I hope so

Homecoming weekend for some college football teams means playing against a weaker opponent whether it is in or out of conference. This week for Penn State that opponent is Indiana who traditionally is a team you’d like to face on a weekend like this, this year though, not so much. However, somehow this Indiana team that lost to number one Ohio State 34-27 last week is a 7-point underdog to a Penn State team that beat Army 20-14 and was favored by 25. Maybe it’s because the game is in Happy Valley and Indiana has never won in State College (0-8). Maybe it’s because the weather is going to be clear and Vegas thinks James Franklin’s offense is going to open up and pass the ball down the field. I doubt they factored that in but I’m going to.  Let’s look at the stats:

• ·      Christian Hackenberg’s #’s in games it’s rained: 34/65, 427 yards, 2 TD's and 2 INT
• ·      Christian Hackenberg’s #’s in games it hasn’t rained: 21/35, 296 yards, 3 TD’s. I’m not going to mention the Temple game because that’s isn’t note worthy. 

As you can tell by the numbers Hackenberg and the offense clearly have bigger days when the weather is clear and the field is fast. Now you might be thinking, “well gee Stephen, isn’t that an accurate statement for any team?” Well, yeah, but not every team has had 3 of their 4 games essentially wash away their offensive playbook. And the numbers also suggest that Penn State could be in for a big day through the air. The Hoosiers give up the second most passing yards per game, a whopping 337 yards. They gave up 245 yards to Ohio State’s Cardale Jones and Jones is having just as much success as Hackenberg is.

If Penn State is going to have success through the air they’re going to need to have success on the ground. The status of running back Saquon Barkley is still up in the air but many speculate the true freshman will be back Saturday. If not then the carries will be shared between Nick Scott, Mark Allen, and Johnathan Thomas. Indiana is giving up 165 yards on the ground which is certainly a number Barkley could reach if he is healthy, but it’s also a number that the other three could reach if the weather is clear.

They always say football is won in the trenches and this weekend will be no different; Indiana has allowed just 3 sacks all season while Penn State is second in the country will 21 sacks. I like Penn State in this matchup because the trio of Austin Johnson, Anthony Zettel, and Carl Nassib might be the best in the country.

The Nittany Lions also have to deal with injuries on the defensive side of the ball; safety Marcus Allen and linebacker Brandon Bell both did not play against Army but like Barkley, many anticipate the two are going to play. Penn State will need Allen and Bell going forward if the defense wants to remain in championship form.

If Penn State wants to win this game they’re going to need keep causing turnovers and special teams is going to need to make some plays in the kicking game and return game.

I’m not saying the weather being clear is going to turn Penn State into Baylor, but it will change the offense. Penn State’s offense could be explosive if clicking but it has yet to click. I see that changing Saturday as Hackenberg has a big game and the offense pulls away in the fourth quarter, Penn State wins 38-24