College Football Bold Predictions

I often like to make bold predictions, like when I said Christian Hackenberg would win the Heisman Trophy and be the number one draft pick in the NFL Draft. They’re bold predictions, yes, but often times things that could actually come true. With the college football season starting this week, here are some bold predictions for 2016

(the first 5 are Penn State related)

Penn State’s offensive line gives up only 15 sacks. I don’t actually see this happening but I have a shred of confidence in our offensive line who, for the most part, have been together for two going on three seasons. The last two seasons have been hard to watch as the offensive line has given up 83 sacks. I do expect this season to be better but just 15 sacks better? That’s bold.

Tight end Mike Gesicki leads the Nittany Lions in touchdowns. Gesicki has all the tools, both physically and on the field skills to be the best tight end in the conference. Maybe even the country. At 6’6”, 250-pounds, Gesicki can be the top-target for Trace McSorley if he can get over the drops he had. The new offense that Joe Moorhead is bringing to Penn State is tight end friendly and if that holds true then the junior could have a big year.

Saquon Barkley named Big Ten MVP. This isn’t really that bold of a prediction. Barkley might be the most complete player in the conference but there is plenty of talent on other teams. The only way he comes close to winning the award is his offensive line holds up their end of the deal and opens up holes for him. Added Prediction: Barkley leads the country in all-purpose yards.

Trace McSorley gets All-Big Ten nod. It wasn’t a surprise when McSorley was named Penn State’s starting quarterback and with that it becomes his team. As I mentioned earlier new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead brings a new and very upbeat offense to Happy Valley. McSorley showed flashes last season when he filled in for Christian Hackenberg in the team’s bowl game and if he can build of the little bit of momentum he found, and again, the offensive line holds up, then he could have a huge season. Don’t sleep on McSCORLEY. (Someone trademark that)

Deshaun Watson doesn’t get invited to New York for Heisman. Watson is the Heisman favorite heading into 2016 as he tries to lead his Clemson Tigers to a National Championship. Watson was in attendance when Alabama’s Derrick Henry took home the Heisman, many believed the junior should have been the winner, and many believe he’ll hold it up come December. There is a lot on the shoulders of this kid and he could potentially crumble under the pressure.

The Big Ten doesn’t get a team in the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten has been in the ‘big dance’ the last two seasons with Ohio State winning the first College Football Playoff two seasons ago, and Michigan State last season losing to Alabama in one of the semifinals. The conference has two teams that have the potential to make it in the end; (6) Ohio State and (7) Michigan. While one of those teams could win the conference and have 1 loss, other conferences will have better one-loss teams. Whatever that means.

The three Heisman finalists are all running backs. This might not be a bold prediction because of how many great running backs there are but it doesn’t normally happen. In fact, since 2000 there has never been a Heisman finalist without a quarterback finishing in the top 3. Everyone knows Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey but another couple of names that be on the Heisman list as the season goes on, Florida State’s Dalvin Cook and Georgia’s Nick Chubb. Cook is coming off 1,691-yard season while Chubb racked up 747 yards before injuring his knee in the teams sixth game. Both are poised to have big seasons but I expect Cook to have the better season and end up in New York. Fournette holds up the trophy in December.

SEC gets two teams in College Football Playoff, not ACC. Again, this might not be a bold prediction but it seems like not too many people have confidence in the SEC getting more than one team into the College Football Playoff. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but if it were, it would be guaranteed that Clemson is going to be in the CFP. Joining them would likely be Alabama and Oklahoma. But who is that fourth team? Could the Big Ten get a team? I’ve answered that question with a no. Could it be another ACC team in Florida State? The ‘Noles have Ole Miss to open up the season and finish up with in-state rival Florida who people shouldn’t sleep on and could lose somewhere in between. On the other hand, you have LSU who could be that team, maybe over Alabama, to be in the CFP. I’m really high on Les Miles this season and think it’s finally his year to claim the throne.

Penn State Potential: The Really Bad

In part three of this three-part series previewing Penn State’s upcoming 2016 season we take a look at how this season could turn out to be really bad. I’ve touched on how the season can go really good, so this is the pessimistic side of things.  

On offense you lose quarterback Christian Hackenberg to the NFL and while Hackenberg wasn’t the Heisman Trophy caliber player I once thought he could be, and that had a lot to do with the coaching staff and system, he was still the most talented quarterback to be at Penn State in the last 20 years. Besides quarterback the Nittany Lions have a glaring question mark at offensive line. It’s been a question mark for the last two season and if I’m putting it lightly, the unit had been a complete dumpster fire with no sign of anyone being able to put it out. The offensive line gave up a staggering 39 sacks last season, that following a season where they gave up 44 sacks. If they can’t get that number down to at least 20 then it could be a long season. So with that said, let’s take a look at how this season could end up being really bad.

Saquon Barkley is undeniably the most important player on Penn State’s offense just based on his ability. If the offensive line can’t open up holes for the freshman sensation, then it won’t matter how great he can be. A talent like Barkley is rare and it would be unfortunate to waste such a talent. Everything this team can do on offense is predicated on what the offensive line can do. It’s been year three for this unit, or most of it, so fans should expect some progress. If no progress is made, then we could go from a 7 or 8-win team, maybe 9, to a 3 or 4-win team. Joe Moorhead’s offensive production at Fordham the last three seasons has been above and beyond what Penn State has been able to do.

• Fordham’s offense: 37.6 PPG
• Penn State’s offense: 23.2 PPG

It’ll be interesting to see how the offense does. We all try and remain optimistic about what they can do and hope that they don’t give up 10 sacks in one game.

• Worst Case: The offensive line still struggles to find the right combination and gives up multiple sacks per game. Quarterbacks have no time to throw, Barkley and running backs can’t find holes. Offense stays stagnant all season.

The defense for Penn State is something I’m not too worried about but I am worried about a few things: having to replace Austin Johnson, Anthony Zettel, and Carl Nassib is going to be a tall order for whoever is up front. The depth at linebacker could prove to be an issue should Brandon Bell, Nyeem Wartman-White, or Jason Cabinda suffer injury (knock on wood). In the secondary it’s Marcus Allen’s unit. He is the name that everyone knows and is the leader of the group but John Reid isn’t far behind. The worrisome part of the secondary is that Reid has a sophomore slump and Allen lets his emotions get the best of him. Penn State’s defense has never been an issue and you’d hope this year is no different but with question marks up front, that could put pressure on the linebackers and secondary to make more plays than they have to.

• Worst Case: No one on the defensive line can become the man. Pressure gets to linebackers and secondary which causes each unit to suffer and not make the plays needed.

Special teams. Or, you know, lack of. Penn State will never be known for having the best special team’s units in the country, and probably won’t be mentioned among the best in the conference. In football, no matter what level, having a good special teams can be the difference between winning and losing. And that goes for the return game, kickoff and punt teams, and the kicking/punting game. The last two seasons Penn State has struggled in all phases. I’m not saying they need Devin Hester returning punts and kickoffs and scoring every time, but someone who can get the offense good field position. I can’t even begin to tell you how hard it is watching someone stand back there and call for a fair catch 90% of the time. It’s even harder to watch someone stand back there who you think can be a playmaker, and they drop the punt. Brutal. Having a kicker who can put the ball in the endzone on kickoffs and one that can put it through the uprights is kind of important too. Penn State has been missing that as well in recent years. A good punter too, you need that. I’m hoping that we won’t have to kick field goals or punt the ball that often but in the event we do, I’d hope that we have a good kicker and punter.

• Worst Case: Our kicker and punter are absolutely heinous again. Our return game is non-existent, again.

Penn State Potential: Defense/Special Teams- The Really Good

In part one of the three-part series we previewed how Penn State’s offense could be really good, today it’s the defense and special teams. Right off the bat you notice some guys missing from last year’s unit; Austin Johnson, Carl Nassib, and Anthony Zettel are all off to the NFL as they accounted for 26 of Penn State’s 46 sacks on the season. Nassib having 15.5 of those sacks. The back end of the defense is strong as most starters return including Nyeem Wartman-White who is coming off a torn ACL suffered in the first game of the 2015 season. The secondary loses key pieces in Jordan Lucas and Trevor Williams but they have great, young talent to make up for those two loses. Here is how the defense/special teams can be really good.

We start with the really good:

• Having a dynamic player on defense is almost as important as having a dynamic player on offense. Penn State is looking for that dynamic playmaker and he could be lurking in the secondary at safety. Marcus Allen enters his junior season with considerable hype. It’s not the Saquon Barkley’s hype, but the 6’2”, 205-pound hard-hitting safety, who has drawn comparisons from teammates to Seattle Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor, looks to become the leader of a defense that gave up 21.6 PPG a season ago. Joining Allen in the secondary is sophomore John Reid who came on strong last season with 2 interceptions and 3 passes broken up. Opposite Reid will be running back turned corner back, Nick Scott. Scott is a bigger corner at 5’11”, 200-pounds. Grant Haley is another corner who can become a game changer.
• Ideal Situation: Allen turns out an All-Big Ten performance with multiple game-changing plays. Reid is Penn State’s lockdown corner.

• Having to replace three guys who are now in the NFL is hard enough but when they are all from the defensive line it adds to the difficulty. The defensive line as been the teams strong suit for a good part for 15 years but this year could be different. This year might be weakest unit they've had in that 15-year span. You most likely don’t know the names Evan Schwan, Garret Sickels, Torrence Brown, Parker Conthran, or Antoine White, but by seasons end there is a chance one if not two of those names will be well-known. And quite frankly, they’re going to have to be.
• Ideal Situation: One of those names, or someone else, has a breakout season having 8.5 sacks or more and leads the front seven.

• Penn State is ‘Linebacker U’, plain and simple. Other schools will make claims to that but when it comes down to it Penn State wears the crown. With that said, this year they could add another name to the long list of linebackers who have put their stamp on the program. When you have names like Ham, Conlin, Arrington, Posluszny, Connor, Lee, Bowman, Mauti, just to name a few, you need to do something special to be added to that list. Brandon Bell, Nyeeem Wartman-White, and Jason Cabinda are the guys this year who will anchor a linebacking core that doesn’t have experience aside from those three. Wartman-White is coming off a torn ACL suffered against Temple last year so his health will be a topic of discussion. Cabinda led the team in tackles last season with 100 and seems to be the one getting all the attention as the next linebacker at Penn State to be great. But don’t sleep on Bell to make his impact.
• Ideal Situation: One of these guys becomes that Penn State linebacker and has an All-Big Ten/All-American type of season (100+ tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 INT).

• Penn State’s special teams have been anything but special over the years. They haven’t had a punt return for a touchdown since 2007 (Derrick Williams), and haven’t had a kickoff return for a touchdown since 2011 (Chaz Powell). That stat must change. I’m not saying they need a returner who will return every kickoff or punt for a touchdown, but someone who will change field position. For example: if a punt is fielded at the 25-yard line, they need someone who can get it out to the 40-yard line. That's all I ask. DeAndre Thompkins was returning punts for most of the season but had issues with drops. He also had an issue with a 7.74 return average. Koa Farmer, Nick Scott, and Brandon Polk were the guys who returned kickoffs, all with an average of 20 yards or more. But no touchdowns. That’s got to change.
• Ideal Situation: SOMEONE RETURNS A PUNT OR KICKOFF FOR A TOUCHDOWN. PLEASE.

This is a new Penn State defense we're going to be seeing and it's filled with a lot of speed and athleticism. In today's college game you need to have that. Let's hope it can turn out a top defense.