The Chaos Begins

Penn State enters this weekend’s game against Michigan State 8^th in the AP top-25. The College Football Playoff rankings don’t come out for another three weeks but the Nittany Lions still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. There are several teams ahead of them that in the next few weeks could lose and allow the Lions to be on the outside looking in should they keep winning.

Penn State has shown so far this season that they can score, having scored 50 or more points in 3 of their 5 games, including two 63-point games. They were leading the #3 ranked team in the country Ohio State for about 54 minutes two weeks ago and looked the part of a playoff team. They have seven more games left, with two of those games coming against currently ranked teams in #12 Michigan on the road then home to #15 Wisconsin, coincidentally those two teams play each other this weekend. (Penn State should hope for Michigan to pull out the win.)

Should Penn State win those two games and win convincingly, while getting some help from teams ahead of them, and of course winning their remaining games, it will put them in good position to get into the College Football Playoffs even if they don’t win the Big Ten. We can get into all the scenarios for Penn State getting in the playoffs at a later time. The help they’ll need from other teams is what we call chaos. If you’ve followed college football over the years, you know that chaos is bound to happen. It’s just a matter of when.

Here is a what some of that chaos could be in the next few weeks starting with this Saturday.

• The #2 team in the country Georgia travels to Death Valley to take on the LSU. Coming off loss to Florida last weekend, LSU will be eager to get back on the field and prove that their previous ranking of 5^th was not a fluke. Playing down in the Bayou is never easy, but head coach Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs ready. A loss wouldn’t hurt the Bulldogs but it would surely drop them out of the top 5 a few weeks ahead of the initial CFP rankings. LSU has Alabama coming to town at the beginning of November which will be a massive game should the Tigers pull this one off Saturday afternoon.
• Implications: a loss for Georgia isn’t the end of the world but it means they can’t afford another loss. They would meet Alabama in the SEC Championship Game IF both teams should win out. A win for LSU should certainly boost them back up in the rankings and will provide them with an enormous amount of confidence heading into the home stretch of the season. Although you can never look ahead, a matchup will the Crimson Tide will decide who goes to Atlanta to represent the SEC West and a likely trip to the College Football Playoffs with a win.

• The leader in the clubhouse heading into this weekend in the Big 12 is West Virginia. The Mountaineers, led by Heisman hopeful Will Grier, head into Ames, Iowa as the 6th ranked team in the country to take on the Cyclones. On paper it seems like a win for West Virginia, but we saw last year Oklahoma go into Ames and take a loss. The Sooners eventually made the playoffs but I wouldn’t expect that to happen to WVU who still has to play the aforementioned Sooners and Texas, who is coming off a big win against Oklahoma.
• Implications: a loss for West Virginia doesn’t knock them out of the playoffs by any means, but with a stretch of games that includes Texas (road), TCU (home), Oklahoma State (road), and Oklahoma (home), it seems unlikely that they run the table and finish 12-0.

• The team that Penn State beat in the Fiesta Bowl to end 2017 season, the Washington Huskies, travel Eugene to take on Oregon. This is an interesting time for a game like this, or any PAC 12 game for that matter, as it is set for a 12:30 (Pacific Time) start. If this is a shoot-out, then Oregon is likely going to take it as they average 45.6 points per game compared to Washington’s 29.2. However, the Huskies only allow 13.7 points per game so something’s got to give. Both teams enter the game with 1 loss on the season but Washington has the 0 in the loss column in conference play. The early start will catch a lot of people off guard but it should shape up to be a great game.
• Implications: a loss for Washington would be their second and would certainly keep them out of the College Football Playoffs even if they win their conference. Oregon is still in the hunt for the conference title but even with winning that, their chances of making the CFP are slim.

Penn State needs to hope for the chaos to start this weekend and continue a few more times as the season goes on. Going forward, style points will matter for James Franklin and company. They have plenty of opportunities to showoff for the playoff committee and that starts this weekend at 3:30 when Michigan State comes to town.